Tesla’s June Deliveries Accounted For 47 Percent Of Its Q2 Deliveries Vs. The 41 To 44 Percent Historical Average, Q3 To See Pulled Forward Demand
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Tesla surprised investors this week by dramatically outperforming some of the most bearish projections for its Q2 deliveries. While the final number ended up falling short of Wall Street’s consensus expectations, the delta between the two was just 0.2 percent, or less than 1,000 units, as per Tesla’s IR-compiled consensus estimate of 385,086 units.
As a refresher, Tesla disclosed earlier this week that it managed to deliver 384,122 units in Q2 2025 against a production level of 410,244 units.
Under the hood, Tesla delivered 373,728 units of Model 3/Y, and 10,394 units of other models, including the Cybertruck.
For Q2 2025, Tesla’s global vehicle inventory days of supply metric increased to 25.26 from 23 in Q1, based on a new inventory level of 129,386 units and an average daily delivery rate of 5121.63 vehicles.
This brings us to the crux of the matter. Ahead of the critical Q2 deliveries report, many Wall Street analysts, including those with JP Morgan, aggressively pared down their estimates for Tesla’s vehicle deliveries in the second quarter. In fact, JP Morgan pared down it’s own estimate all the way to 360,000 units from an earlier peg at 392,000. Nonetheless, Tesla managed to handily outpace these morose projections. And, now we know exactly how.
According to a fresh analysis by HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall, Tesla’s June deliveries were “exceptionally strong,” accounting for 47 percent of it’s total Q2 deliveries vs. the historical average of between 41 and 44 percent.
In fact, Tesla’s delivery run-rate in June ended up at an eye-watering 170,000 – 180,000 units, which speaks volumes as to the EV giant’s concerted efforts to push deliveries in the waning days of the quarter.
What’s more, while Tyndall does not expect this new elevated monthly run-rate to become the new normal, he does project a short-term boost for Tesla in Q3, driven by the impending end to the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September.
Nonetheless, Tesla does have the odds stacked against it for now, with H1 2025 deliveries down 13 percent on a year-over-year basis. Of course, the EV giant can partially offset the resulting impact by more aggressively growing it’s energy business in H2.
Meanwhile, as we reported recently, Elon Musk has fired Tesla’s head of operations in North America and Europe, Omead Afshsar, and assumed direct oversight of the EV giant’s delivery cadence in these two critical regions, which should result in a more aggressive sales-related push.
